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SocialSecurityNewsFriday, October 23, 2026IndividualPro

Will Your 2027 COLA Cover the Medicare Hike?

By SocialSecurityNews Editorial Team · Last reviewed October 23, 2026 · 3 min read · How we review

The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects the 2027 Part B premium at about $209.50, up from $202.90. Since it's deducted from your check, it eats into the 3.6% COLA — but for most retirees the raise still comes out ahead. Here's the math, the hold-harmless rule, and what higher earners pay.

For most retirees, yes: the 3.6% Social Security raise for 2027 should more than cover the projected rise in the Medicare Part B premium. But the premium takes a bite out of the raise, and for people with smaller checks the leftover increase is thinner than the COLA headline suggests. Here are the numbers and how the two amounts interact.

The projected 2027 Part B premium

The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects the standard Part B premium at about $209.50 a month in 2027, up from the confirmed $202.90 in 2026. That is a roughly $6.60 increase, or about 3.25%. Two cautions: this is a projection, not the official figure, and some analysts think the real number could land higher, in the $215 to $219 range. CMS announces the confirmed premium each fall, usually in mid-November.

How it eats into your COLA

Most people have their Part B premium deducted straight from their Social Security payment, so the two numbers meet on the same check. The 2027 COLA is 3.6%. Run it through an example:

  • A retiree getting $2,000 a month gets about $72 more from the 3.6% COLA. A $6.60 premium increase leaves roughly $65 of real gain.
  • A retiree getting $1,200 a month gets about $43 more. The same $6.60 premium bump leaves about $37.

So the raise still comes out ahead, but the smaller your benefit, the more a flat-dollar premium increase matters. This is why a bigger COLA can still feel like less than promised. Estimate your own figure with our benefits calculator.

The hold-harmless protection

A provision called "hold harmless" keeps most people's Part B increase from exceeding their dollar COLA, so your net Social Security payment does not drop year over year. It does not apply to everyone. People new to Medicare, those who do not have the premium deducted from Social Security, higher-income beneficiaries who pay IRMAA surcharges, and those also on Medicaid are outside the protection. In a year with a healthy COLA like 2027, hold harmless rarely binds anyway, because the raise is larger than the premium increase.

If you have a higher income

About 8% of Part B enrollees pay more through the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, or IRMAA. Those surcharges are set from your tax return two years back, so 2027 surcharges use 2025 income. The 2026 brackets start at $109,000 for single filers and $218,000 for joint filers, and the 2027 thresholds are expected to rise slightly. If your income is near a bracket line, a small change can move you up a tier.

What it means for you

Treat the $209.50 as a planning estimate until CMS confirms it in November. For the typical retiree, the 2027 raise outpaces the premium, but not by as wide a margin as the 3.6% figure alone implies. The practical move is to look at your own numbers: the dollar COLA on your benefit minus your actual Part B premium is your real raise. For how the two programs fit together overall, see Social Security and Medicare.


This article is general educational information, not financial advice. Premium figures are projections from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report; the official 2027 amounts are set by CMS, usually in November. Confirm at medicare.gov. SocialSecurityNews.com is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration.

Frequently asked questions

How much is the 2027 Medicare Part B premium?
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard premium of about $209.50 a month in 2027, up from $202.90 in 2026 — roughly a $6.60 increase. This is a projection; CMS announces the official figure each fall, usually in mid-November. Some analysts expect the final number could be higher.
Will the 2027 COLA cover the Medicare premium increase?
For most retirees, yes. The 3.6% COLA adds about $72 a month to a $2,000 benefit, which easily covers a $6.60 premium increase. But the smaller your benefit, the less is left after the premium, so the net raise is thinner than the 3.6% headline.
What is the Medicare hold-harmless rule?
Hold harmless keeps most people's Part B premium increase from exceeding their dollar COLA, so your net Social Security check does not fall year over year. It does not cover everyone — new enrollees, higher earners who pay IRMAA, people who do not have the premium deducted from Social Security, and those on Medicaid are excluded.
Who pays more than the standard Part B premium?
About 8% of enrollees with higher incomes pay an income-related surcharge called IRMAA, based on their tax return from two years earlier. For 2027, surcharges use 2025 income. The 2026 brackets start at $109,000 for single filers and $218,000 for joint filers.
Is the $209.50 figure official?
Not yet. It comes from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projection. CMS confirms the real 2027 premium in its fall announcement, typically in November. Treat $209.50 as a planning estimate until then.
MedicareCOLA2027

Reference: SocialSecurityNews

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